2020年全球能源报告:新冠疫情对需求和碳排放冲击(全文)
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2020年全球能源报告:新冠疫情对需求和碳排放冲击(全文)

2022-07-26 16:10:09 投稿作者:网友投稿 点击:

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2020年全球能源报告:新冠疫情对需求和碳排放冲击(全文)

 

  A bs tr ac t

 I n

  r es p on s e

  t o

  t h e

  ex c ep t i on a l

  c ir c u m s t a n c es

  s t em m in g

  f r om

  t h e

  c o r on a v ir u s p a n d em ic ,

 t h e

 a nn u a l

 I E A

 G l ob a l

 E n er g y

 R e v iew

 h a s

 ex p a n d ed

 i t s

 c o v er a g e

 t o

 i n c l u d e r ea l - t im e

 a n a l y s is

 of

 d ev e l op m en t s

 t o

 d a t e

 in

 2 0 2 0 a n d

 p os s ib l e

 d ir e c t ion s

 for

 t h e r es t

 of

 t h e

 y ea r.

 I n

 a dd i t io n

 t o

 r ev iew in g

 2 0 1 9

 en er g y

 a n d

 C O 2

 e m i ssi o n s

 d a t a

 b y

 fu e l a n d

 c o u n t r y ,

 for

 t h is

 s ec t i on

 of

 t h e

 G l ob a l

 E n er g y

 R ev ie w

 w e

 h a v e

 t r a c k ed

 en er g y

 u s e b y

 c oun t r y

 a n d

 fu e l

 ov er

 t h e

 p a st

 t h ree

 mo n t h s

 an d

 i n

 so m e

 c ase s

 –

 s uch

 a s

 e l e ct r i ci t y

 –

  in

  r ea l

  t im e.

  S om e

  t r a c k in g

  w ill

  c on t in u e

  on

  a

  w eek l y

  b a s is .

  T h e

  u n c er t a in t y s u rr oun d in g

 p u b l ic

 h ea l t h ,

 t h e

 e c on om y

 a n d

 h en c e

 en er g y

 ov er

 t h e

 r es t

 of

 2 0 2 0 is u n p re c ed en t e d .

 T h is

 a n a l y s is

 t h er ef or e

 n o t

 on l y

 c h a r t s

 a

 p os s ib l e

 p a t h

 for

 en er g y

 u s e a n d

 C O 2

 em is s ion s

 in

 2 0 2 0 b u t

 a l s o

 h ig h l ig h t s

 t h e

 m a n y

 f a c t or s

 t h a t

 c o u l d

 l ea d

 t o d if f erin g

 ou t c om es .

 W e

 d r a w

 k ey

 l es s on s

 on

 h ow

 t o

 n a vig a t e

 t h is

 on c e - in - a - ce n t ury c r isis .

 P a g e

 |

 2

 IE A .

 A ll

 ri g h t s

 re s e rv e d .

  K e y

 fi nd i ng s

  T h e

 c u rr en t

 C o vid - 1 9

 p a n d em ic

 is

 a b ov e

 a ll

 a

 g l ob a l

 h ea l t h

 c r isis .

 A s

 of

 t h e

 2 8 t h of

 A p r il ,

 t h ere

 w ere

 3

 m ill ion

 c on f ir m e d

 c a s es

 a n d

 ov er

 2 00 000 d ea t h s

 d u e

 t o t h e

 ill n es s .

 A s

 a

 c on s e q uen c e

 of

 t h e

 ef f o r t s

 t o

 s l o w

 t h e

 s p r ea d

 of

 t h e

 v i r u s ,

 t h e s h a re

 of

 en er g y

 u s e

 t h a t

 w a s

 ex p ose d

 t o

 c on t a in m e n t

 m ea s u r es

 j u m p e d

 f r om

 5 % in

 m id - M a r c h

 t o

 5 0 %

 in

 m id - A p r il .

 S ev er a l

 E u r op e a n

 c oun t r i es

 a n d

 t h e

 U n i t e d S t a t es

 h a v e

 a nnoun c ed

 t h a t

 t h e y

 ex p ec t

 t o

 re op en

 p a r t s

 of

 t h e

 ec on om y

 in

 M a y , s o

 A p r il

 m a y

 b e

 t h e

 h a r d e s t

 h it

 m on t h .

  B ey on d

 t h e

 im m ed iat e

 im p a c t

 on

 h ea l t h ,

 t h e

 c u rr en t

 c r isis

 h a s

 m a jo r

 im p l ic a t i on s for

 g l ob a l

 e c on om i es ,

 en er g y

 u s e

 a n d

 C O 2

 e m i ssi o n s.

 O u r

 an al y si s

 o f

 d a il y

 d ata t h r o u g h

 m id - A p r il

 s h ow s

 t h a t

 c o u n t r ies

 in

 fu ll

 l o c k d ow n

 a re

 ex p erien c in g

 a n a v er a g e

  2 5 %

  d ec l ine

  in

  en er g y

  d em a n d

  p er

  w eek

  a n d

  c o u n t r ies

  in

  p a r tia l l oc k d ow n

 a n

 a v er a g e

 1 8 %

 d ec l ine.

 D a il y

 d a t a

 c o ll e c t ed

 for

 30

 c oun t r ies

 u n t il

 1 4 A p r il ,

 r ep r es en t in g

 ov er

 t w o - t h ir d s

 of

 g l ob a l

 en er g y

 d em a n d ,

 s h ow

 t h a t

 d em a n d d ep r es s ion

 d ep en d s

 on

 d u r a t ion

 a n d

 s t rin g en c y

 of

 l oc k d ow n s .

  G lo b a l

 en er g y

 d em a n d

 d e c l ine d

 b y

 3. 8 %

 in

 t h e

 f ir s t

 q u a r t er

 of

 2 0 2 0 ,

 w i t h

 m os t

 o f t h e

 im p a c t

 f el t

 in

 M a r c h

 a s

 c on f in emen t

 m ea s u r es

 w ere

 enf o r c e d

 in

 E u r op e, N or t h

 A m er i c a

 a n d

 el s ew h ere.

  G l ob a l

 coa l

 d em a n d

 w a s

 h it

 t h e

 h a r d es t ,

 f a ll in g

 b y

 a l m os t

 8 %

 c om p a r ed

 w i t h

 th e f ir s t

 q u a r t er

 of

 2 0 1 9 .

 T h ree

 r ea s on s

 c on v er g e d

 t o

 e x p l a in

 t h is

 d r op .

 T h e

 P eo p l e’ s Rep u b li c

 of

 C h in a

 ( “ C h in a ” )

 –

 a

  co a l - b a s ed

  e c on om y

 –

 w a s

  th e

  c o u n tr y

  th e h a r d es t

 h it

 b y

 C o vi d - 19

 in

 t h e

 f i r s t

 q u a r t er ;

 c h ea p

 g a s

 a n d

 c on t in u ed

 g r ow t h

 in r en ew a b l es

 e l s ew h ere

 c h a ll en g e d

 coa l ;

 a n d

 m il d

 w ea t h er

 a l s o

 c a pp ed

 coa l

 u s e.

  O il

 d em a n d

 w a s

 a l s o

 h i t

 s t r on g l y ,

 d ow n

 n ea r l y

 5 %

 i n

 t h e

 f ir s t

 q u a r t er,

 m os t l y

 b y c u r t a il m en t

 in

 mo b il it y

 a n d

 a v iat i on ,

 w h ic h

 a cc o u n t

 for

 n ea r l y

 6 0 %

 of

 g l ob a l

 oil d em a n d .

 B y

 t h e

 en d

 of

 M a r c h ,

 g l ob a l

 r oa d

 t r a n s p or t

 a c t iv it y

 w a s

 a l m os t

 5 0 % b el ow

 t h e

 2 0 1 9

 a v er a g e

 a n d

 a v iat ion

 6 0 %

 b e l ow .

  T h e

 im p a c t

 of

 t h e

 p a n d e m ic

 on

 g a s

 d em a n d

 w a s

 m or e

 mo d er a t e,

 a t

 a r o u n d

 2 % , as

 g as - b a s ed

 e c on om ies

 w ere

 n o t

 s t r on g l y

 a ff ec t e d

 in

 t h e

 f i r s t

 q u a r t er

 of

 2 0 2 0 .

  Renew a b l es

 w ere

 t h e

 on l y

 s ou r c e

 t h a t

 p os t ed

 a

 g r ow t h

 in

 d em a n d ,

 d r i ven

 b y l a r g er

 in s t a ll e d

 c a p a c i t y

 a n d

 p r io r i t y

 d is p a t c h .

  E l ec t r ic i t y

  d em a n d

  h a s

  b een

  s i g n ific a n t l y

  r ed u c ed

  a s

  a

  r es u l t

  of

  l o c k d ow n m ea s u r es ,

 w it h

 k n o c k - on

 ef f ec t s

 on

 t h e

 p ow er

 m ix .

 E l e c t r ic i t y

 d em a n d

 h as

 b ee n d ep r es s ed

 b y

 2 0 %

 or

 m or e

 d u rin g

 p er i od s

 of

 fu ll

 l o c k d ow n

 in

 s e v er a l

 c oun t r i es , a s

 u p t i c k s

 for

 r es i d en tia l

 d em a n d

 a re

 f a r

 ou t w eig h e d

 b y

 r ed u c t i on s

 in

 c omm er c ia l a n d

 in d u s t r ia l

 op er a t i on s .

 F or

 w e ek s ,

 t h e

 s h a p e

 of

 d em a n d

 r es em b l ed

 t h a t

 of

 a p r ol on g ed

 S u n d a y .

 D em a n d

 r ed u c t ion s

 h a v e

 l if t ed

 t h e

 s h a re

 of

 r en ew a b l es

 in

 t h e

 P a g e

 |

 3

 IE A .

 A ll

 ri g h t s

 re s e rv e d .

 el e c t r ic i t y

 s u pp l y ,

 a s

 t h e ir

 ou t p u t

 is

 l a r g el y

 u n a ff ec t ed

 b y

 d em a n d .

 D em a n d

 f el l for

 a ll

 ot h er

 s o u r c es

 of

 el e c t r ic i t y ,

 in c l u d in g

 coa l ,

 g a s

 a n d

 n u c l ea r

 p ow er.

  L ook in g

 a t

 t h e

 fu ll

 y ea r,

 w e

 ex p l or e

 a

 s c en a r io

 t h a t

 q u a n t if ies

 t h e

 en er g y

 im p a c t s of

 a

 w id es p r ea d

 g l o b a l

 re c es s ion

 c a u s e d

 b y

 m on t h s - l on g

 r es t r i c t i on s

 on

 m ob il it y a n d

 s oc ia l

 a n d

 e c on om i c

 a c t iv i t y .

 W it h in

 t h is

 s c en a r io,

 t h e

 rec o v er y

 f r om

 t h e d ep t h s

  of

 t h e

 l o c k d ow n

  rec es s ion

 is

  on l y

  g r adu al

  an d

 i s

 ac c om p an i e d

 b y

  a s u b s t a n tia l

 p er m a n en t

 l os s

 in

 ec on om ic

 a c t i v i t y ,

 d e s p it e

 m a c r oe c on om ic

 p o l ic y ef for t s .

  T h e

 r es u l t

 of

 s u c h

 a

 s c en a r io

 is

 t h a t

 en er g y

 d em a n d

 c on t r a c t s

 b y

 6 % ,

 t h e

 l a r g es t in

 7 0 y ea r s

 in

 p er c en t a g e

 t er m s

 a n d

 t h e

 l a r g es t

 ev er

 in

 a b s o l u te

 te r m s .

 T h e im p a c t

 of

 C ovid - 19

 on

 en er g y

 d em a n d

 in

 2 0 2 0 w o u l d

 b e

 mo re

 t h a n

 s e ven

 t i m es l a r g er

 t h a n

 t h e

 im p a c t

 of

 t h e

 2 00 8

 f in a n c ia l

 c r isis

 o n

 g l ob a l

 en er g y

 d em a n d .

  A ll

 fu e ls

 w ill

 b e

 a ff e c t e d :

  O il

 d em a n d

 c ou l d

 d r op

 b y

 9 % ,

 or

 9

 m b / d

 on

 a v er a g e

 a c ros s

 t h e

 y ea r,

 re t u r n in g oil

 c on s u m p t ion

 t o

 2 0 1 2

 l ev e l s .

  C oa l

 d em a n d

 c ou l d

 d e c li n e

 b y

 8 % ,

 in

 l a r g e

 p a r t

 b ec a u s e

 el e c t r ic it y

 d em a n d w ill

 b e

 n ea r l y

 5 %

 l ow er

 ov er

 t h e

 c ou r s e

 of

 t h e

 y ea r.

 T h e

 re c o v er y

 of

 coa l d em a n d

 for

 in d u s t r y

 a n d

 el e c t r ic it y

 g en er a t i on

 in

 C h in a

 c ou l d

 of f s e t

 l a r g er d ec l in es

 e l s ew h ere.

  G a s

 d em a n d

 c o u l d

 f a ll

 m u c h

 fu r t h er

 a c ros s

  t h e

  fu ll

 y ea r

 t h a n

 in

 t h e

 f i r s t q u a r t er,

 w i t h

 r ed u c ed

 d e m a n d

 in

 p ow er

 a n d

 in d u s t r y

 a pp l ic a t ion s .

  N u c l ea r

  p o w er

  d em a n d

  w ou l d

  a l s o

  f a ll

  in

  r es p on s e

  t o

  l ow er

  el e c t r ic it y d em a n d .

  Renew a b l es

 d em a n d

 is

 ex p ec t ed

 t o

 in c r ea s e

 b ec a u s e

 of

 l o w

 op er a t in g

 c os t s a n d

 p r ef er en tia l

 a cc es s

 t o

 m a n y

 p o w er

 s y s t em s .

 R ec en t

 g r ow t h

 in

 c a p a c it y , s om e

 n ew

 p r oj ec t s

 c om in g

 on l ine

 in

 2 0 2 0 ,

 w o u l d

 a l s o

 b oos t

 o u t p u t .

  I n

  ou r

  es t im a t e

  f o r

  2 0 2 0 ,

  g l ob a l

  e l ec t r i c i t y

  d e m a n d

  f a ll s

  b y

  5 % ,

  wi t h

  1 0 % r ed u c t ion s

 in

 s om e

 r eg io n s .

 L ow - c a r b on

 s o u r c es

 w ou l d

 f a r

 ou t s t r ip

 coa l - f ir ed g en er a t ion

 g l ob a ll y ,

 ex t en d in g

 t h e

 l ea d

 es t a b l is h e d

 in

 2 0 1 9 .

  G lo b a l

 C O 2

 em is s ion s

 a re

 ex p e c t ed

 t o

 d ec l ine

 b y

 8 % ,

 o r

 a l m os t

 2 . 6

 g ig a t onn es (G t ),

 t o

 l e v e l s

 of

 1 0 y ea r s

 a g o.

 S u c h

 a

 y ea r - on - y ea r

 re d u c t ion

 w ou l d

 b e

 t h e

 l a r g es t ev er,

 s ix

 t im es

 l a r g er

 t h a n

 t h e

 p r ev iou s

 rec or d

 re d u c t ion

 of

 0 . 4

 G t

 in

 2 00 9

 – c a u s e d

 b y

 t h e

 g l ob a l

 f in a n c ia l

 c r isis

 –

 a n d

 t w i c e

 a s

 l a r g e

 a s

 t h e

 c om b in ed

 t o t a l

 o f a ll

 p re v io u s

 r ed u c t ion s

 s i n c e

 t h e

 en d

 of

 W o r l d

 W a r

 II .

 A s

 a f t er

 p r ev iou s

 c r is es , h ow ev er,

 t h e

 r eb o u n d

 in

 em is s ion s

 m a y

 b e

 l a r g er

 t h a n

 t h e

 d ec l ine,

 u n l es s

 t h e w a v e

 of

 in v es t m en t

 t o

 re s t a r t

 t h e

 ec on om y

 is

 d ed ic a t ed

 t o

 c l ea n er

 a n d

 m or e r es il ien t

 en er g y

 in f r a s t r u c t u re.

 P a g e

 |

 4

 IE A .

 A ll

 ri g h t s

 re s e...


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